IAEA: Iran Pressing Ahead with Atomic Work

10/1/2008

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An alarming new International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report has revealed that Iran is rapidly overcoming technical obstacles and increasing its ability to enrich uranium—a key step toward developing nuclear weapons.

Iran has roughly doubled its production of low enriched uranium (LEU), and at the current pace could accumulate ample LEU within six months to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb.

In a sign of its frustration with Iranian intransigence, one IAEA-affiliated diplomat accused Tehran of further “deepening 

suspicions” over its nuclear intentions. Another diplomat simply stated that the year-long probe to get the Islamic Republic to clarify whether it covertly researched how to make a nuclear weapon had reached a “dead end.”

Report Shows Iran Getting Closer to a Nuclear Weapons Capability

The IAEA report said that Iran has increased the number of centrifuges to more than 3,800—up from 3,300 in May—with upwards of 2,000 more being installed. With new, more efficient machines operating, Iran has reduced the time required to produce enough highly enriched uranium needed for a nuclear weapon. 

In addition, Iran continues to make substantial progress on the construction of its heavy water reactor at Arak, which, according to the IAEA, now appears to be operational. The reactor could be used to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons without having to master the onerous uranium enrichment process.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made clear that Iran has no intentions of ending its enrichment efforts, saying recently that the “era of [uranium enrichment] suspension has ended.”

IAEA Says Iran Has Researched Nuclear Weapons

Iran has repeatedly failed to address concerns about the military nature of its nuclear program. Shortly after the IAEA released its latest report, the U.N. nuclear watchdog showed its members documents and photographs suggesting that Iran secretly tried to modify a missile cone to carry a nuclear bomb.

Diplomats who attended the special briefing said the IAEA’s head of inspections in the Middle East, Herman Naeckerts, had shown them new proof indicating that Iran tried to refit the long-range Shahab-3 missile to carry a nuclear payload. Iran has refused IAEA requests to interview engineers involved in the work and visit their ostensibly civilian workshops. IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei has said that it is impossible to guarantee that Iran is not hiding nuclear activities unless the regime allows his inspectors much broader access and answers allegations that it hid past attempts to make nuclear arms.

For the first time, the IAEA also said that Tehran had received “foreign assistance” for experiments with high explosive charges suitable for nuclear implosions. In a startling revelation, IAEA officials said that the aid came from a “non-state actor” other than the network of A.Q. Khan, the disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist who provided Iran with centrifuges and other nuclear technology. So far the IAEA has given few additional details.

Sanctions Affecting Iranian Regime

As Iran presses ahead with its illicit nuclear work, the United States and its allies are working to impose more stringent international sanctions against Tehran.

In late September, the United States sanctioned Iran’s national maritime carrier and much of the country’s shipping sector for illegally transferring cargo for U.N.-designated proliferators. The move followed a series of steps by the European Union to restrict export credits to Iran, expand the inspection of Iranian cargo shipments and freeze the assets of Bank Melli—Iran’s largest commercial bank.

These sanctions are creating difficulties for the Iranian regime. Foreign investment is down and financial institutions are having trouble making a profit, according to a recent International Monetary Fund report. Mohammad Nahavandian, the head of Iran’s chamber of commerce, admitted that sanctions are having an impact on Iran, saying in the Sarmayeh newspaper that the costs of imports have increased “because of the obstacles created.” Those obstacles, however, have not yet persuaded Tehran to change course. 

Despite possessing some of the largest oil reserves in the world, Iran imports 40 percent of its gasoline because it lacks sufficient refining capability. A U.S.-led international campaign to voluntarily ban the sale to Iran of all refined petroleum products could help convince Iran to abandon its illicit nuclear program. So, too, could a fourth round of U.N. Security Council sanctions, which the United States, Britain and France have vowed to pursue.  •NER•

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